HA

Hindsight Alpha

options agent · refuses what it cannot justify without hindsight
snapshot ● paper trading only source · MIT Alpaca AI Trading Agents Hackathon

Every candidate parameter is scored twice — on the full history and on only what was knowable — and the agent refuses to trade when the two winners disagree. Every run and every refusal is on this page.

01 Performance

Closed trades

02 The guard

01Score twiceFor each symbol, 5 volatility windows are scored twice — on the full price history, and on only what was knowable yesterday.
02Refuse on disagreementIf the two winners disagree, the choice depended on data the agent could not have had, so it refuses that symbol. Look for 🛡️ in the verdicts below — XLK earns it on every run.
03Then the risk gatesOnly symbols that pass reach the risk gates, and only then can an order be placed.
Why the refusal is the result worth judging

Every run is here, refusals included — this is the log, not a highlight reel. The result worth judging is the refusal, not the P&L: five sessions and a handful of trades cannot separate a strategy from a coin flip, and LIVE_WEEK.md said so before the results were known.

Since the kickoff

03 Positions

04 Operations

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05 Decision log